Quantbase Crisis Flagship
A fund that invests into an allocation of stocks that do well in crises, based on factors backtested to 1974. The fund detects a bear market using the high yield spread - when the difference between junk bond and US Treasury interest rates is above 6.5%.
*Vertical reference line denotes the end of simulated backtest data and the start of live performance data.
** Performance data is calculated using the average returns of all accounts with more than $100 invested in this strategy.
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Fund details
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The fund uses 7 factors to determine which stocks to invest in and hold during a crisis and shortly after. These factors are: high asset turnover (revenue over total assets), positive net income, low trade volume, positive operating cash flow, de-leveraging, have a currently high net debt over enterprise value, and are considered a value stock. Empirical data and backtests show that stocks ranking highly on these factors do exceptionally better than the market over the 24 months proceeding a crisis.
Key Considerations
This strategy is aggressive in a bear market - it does not flock to safety. This is not for you if you are uncomfortable with falling returns at the start of a crisis or bear market scenario
The strategy hits its stride between 12 to 24 months after the start of a crisis, beating the market substantially in 5 of the last 7 crises (with losses to market remaining low)
The strategy is based on this research paper by a global asset management firm.
This strategy relies on the theory that certain factors (aka sections of the market) do better than others, or the market as a whole, during crises. It also relies on predicting the start of a bear market correctly, two strong assumptions. This strategy invests in fractional shares when available. When not available, it will invest in the nearest (lower) whole number of shares. Please note that this number may be 0 if your investment in this strategy is sufficiently low, meaning our investment strategy advertised returns will be different from your returns.